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Your Captain at The Get Prepared Expo

7/22/2013

This just goes to show that you never know when you're on camera, nor where that image will show up.

Imagine the surprises. First that The Blaze reported on the Get Prepared Expo, then when I click the link - there I am in my yellow vest talking to a guest about The Financial State of the Union.

Article Link

Unspinning the June Employment Report

7/5/2013

Today's sound bite report says that employment increased by 160,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate remains at 7.6%.

More detailed reports tell us that part-time jobs increased by 360,000 while full-time jobs decreased by 240,000. Don't you think it should be news that a quarter-million Americans lost their full-time jobs last month?

Anyone who's worked with numbers understands that rounding differences happen. What's harder to understand is how to arrive at an increase of 120,000 jobs using the full-time/part-time detail and 160,000 jobs in total. No matter how you look at it, a 40,000 job difference is a significant percentage.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does state in the fine print that different series use different seasonal adjustment factors and don't necessarily add up to the totals.

So what can the actual, non-seasonally adjusted number tell us? You may want to sit down for this news.

In our real world, employment increased by 409,000 jobs. That's a big increase. Wonder why it's not being reported?

Of the 409k increase, 779k went to teenagers aged 16-19. Notice anything?

Let me do the math for you - there were 370,000 adults (20 and older) that lost their jobs last month.

Based on 2012 population estimates this translates to a teenage population the size of Fort Worth, TX were hired, while adults who lost their jobs equates to a city the size of New Orleans, LA.

Could you imagine a mainstream reporter reporting more than a third of a million adults lost their jobs to teenagers last month? They probably wouldn't get invited to the White House anymore.

If you've taken a statistics course, you'll understand that seasonal adjustments sometimes produces unexpected results. What you are about to see may leave you scratching your head. Remember, it's the government - don't try to apply logic.

We've seen the seasonally adjusted data told us we lost 240k full-time jobs and gained 360k part-time jobs. The actual unadjusted numbers say we gained 757k full time jobs and lost 347k part-time jobs!!!

So with companies switching employees to part-time to avoid Obamacare mandates, we gained three-quarters of a million full time jobs. Shouldn't this be a leading headline?

Likewise, the part-time number is in the opposite direction as well, showing less part-time positions last month.

Now let's put the unadjusted data into full focus:

Last month, teenagers found 779,000 jobs while 370,000 adults lost their jobs. Full-time positions increased 757,000 and part-time positions decreased by 347,000.

The link to the employment report data is below. Be careful not to step in the Fosbenorbb.

BLS Data Link

Your Captain at The Get Prepared Expo

Unspinning the June Employment Report

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