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The Expert Problem
Time to End Football About Those Jobs Catch-up Suspicious0bservers Videos (about an hour each): Plasma Cosmology Cosmic Disaster / CIA Classified Climate Forcing
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How your phone can be stolen without leaving your hand History: It's Rhyming Again Why Gold Is Money Current Events: Women's Soccer Equal Pay = $48,251.87 The Financial End of the Road: Recession Time National Debt Death Spiral (PDF) Treasury Presentation We're Already Underwater The Additional $9 Trillion Federal Deficit From Last Year Pension Death Spiral The Zombie Transformation No Good Choices Weather:
Great Picture Dallas Timeline Under Protected And Of Course Then There's The Floods Glyphosate: The Gift That Keeps On Giving Plus Liver Damage A Kick In The Gut Which Is Important Because... Summary And Testing Financial: Deficit Up, Up, and Away Recession Ahead Debt Everywhere Misc: Reality Denial When Social Security Cuts Happen 1 + 1 = 100
But We Have Video Of Your Guilt National Debt Death Spiral Break Even Point People Are Dumber Now Space Weather: Space Weather Health Risks (Video) Space Weather Health Intro (Video) Space Weather Health Casey Example (Video) See What's Missing From The Climate Models (focus on 12:30-16:30 if you can't watch the whole 40 minute presentation) Cosmic Rays Increasing You might be saying - John, you need to turn in your math card.
If we were talking about ordinary numbers, you'd be right. But today I'm talking biology and the synergistic effects of toxins. The term we need to add is lethal dose (LD). A LD50 means the 50% of the test subjects (usually lab mice) die. A LD1 means that just 1% die. But the synergistic effect of two or more toxins is not simple math. A 1978 paper discusses how a LD1 dosage of mercury when combined with a LD1 dosage of lead resulted in the death of 100% of the lab rats - LD100. LD1 + LD1 = LD100 Of course the dosage for humans does not directly translate from animal studies and it's frowned upon to perform such lab tests on humans (though we're guinea pigs for what the various governments and corporations allow/force upon us). There are also several levels below death. Sometimes damage is permanent. Sometimes it's reversible. Some toxins are cumulative. But the take-away point is that when you read about the results of safety studies - the individual substance may be as "safe" as advertised, but when combined with other ingredients - the results can be damaging to your health or even result in death. I've included a couple of articles for your reading "pleasure": Dr Miller discusses effects including mercury and aluminum. Another discussion on synergistic toxicity. It was about 10 years ago when I found out that I was not going to be hired for the job I'd held since 2007. They did ask if I'd stick around for two or three months to train my replacement.
By summer I'd enrolled in the Master of Science in Finance program at Texas A&M Commerce. That formal education plus the informal education in finance, technology, health, and geopolitical events has consumed about 30,000 hours of my life over the last 10 years. This has made it difficult just to have a meaningful conversation with people. If we only consider the top 1% of what I've learned as critical information - that's 300 hours. To relay that in a year would require 6 hours a week - not a likely occurrence. I believe that at least 10% is really important information for our lives - that's 3,000 hours. That's about a year and a half of 40 hour weeks. An impossible task. Was the 30,000 hours worth it? Not financially - I've made less than nothing for my efforts. Not spiritually - I've no evidence that I've helped one person in their walk with Christ. Not physically - Again no evidence that I've helped one person prepare for the trying times ahead. It was some time over a decade ago, I decided I wanted to be prepared for a grid down scenario (what I considered the worst case). Now I realize the futility in that. That may be the biggest benefit to me out of those 30,000 hours. The Amish have the best skills and communities of any group I know of and they are still dependent on the supply chain. Even if they can overcome the supply chain collapse - can they overcome the bigger problem? I learned from the late Mat Stein that when the grid goes down, nuclear power plants will go critical. A large scale grid down (whether from a man-made or natural event) would result in the radiation release equivalent of 400 Chernobyls. Human nature is such that little, if any action will happen before an event occurs. Reality is such that once an accident (event) starts, it's too late to put on your seat belt (prepare). I still believe it's prudent to be ready for a two or three month event of which we've repeated seen with hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, and the like. Anywhere can have the power knocked out for a few days from storms or equipment failure. We are so busy and have some many distractions in our day-to-day lives that really important issues are ignored or neglected. Schools do a poor job of education and I believe that was the goal when the Prussian education model was brought to America. We do learn loyalty to team and not to question authority. We have a populace that is: Mathematically illiterate Financially illiterate Historically illiterate Biblical illiterate (even most Christians) Our churches are practically worthless and the worldliness was institutionalized before my parents were born. Billy Sunday declared in 1914 that we were in need of a revival as our churches had become third rate entertainment centers. IF he were here today I think he'd say they've become first rate entertainment centers. I've come across many of the milestones of how Christians became so deceived: - Isaac Newton - 1751 Machine that made everything - The Lost Generation - Electricity and Oil to power the machines - Logic gates The challenges to our way of life are many: Financial: We're way past broke. The world is about $250 trillion in debt with over $73 trillion here in the US. That doesn't include about another $250 trillion to meet the promises of Social Security, Medicare, and pension plans just in the US. As the Federal debt and interest rates rise (just to normal rates) we'll soon (less than a decade) reach the point where the government would have to borrow money just to pay interest on the debt - nothing to defense or any of the other budgeted items. Demographically: - Most countries are below replacement rate - Loss of elder wisdom coming to a head - We have about 4 years to change the hearts and minds of the young Resources: -- Many critical materials in short supply -- Energy constraints Environment: -- Toxins/Radiation -- Space Weather/Cosmic Rays -- Micronova Health: We can't even begin to fix this problem until the discussion becomes about health rather than costs. The main driver of our ills is chronic inflammation. Chronic inflammation is lifestyle driven by a number of factors: - (Processed) food: -- Sugar, specifically fructose -- Omega 6 seed oils (canola, corn, etc.) - Toxins: -- Glyphosate -- Chlorine and byproducts -- Fluoride - Microbiome issues -- Antibiotics -- Toxins -- Lack of fiber -- Lack of fermented foods - Stress/Modern life: -- Lack of Sleep -- Lack of sunlight -- Lack of movement -- Anxiety (money, relationships, etc.) The American Way: -- God given rights at founding -- Tolerant of other Christian denominations and Judaism -- Deception is now institutionalized -- Science and Technology cannot be tamed It's all a matter of faith - everything comes from God or everything comes from nothing. Jesus in John 14 said - I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me. Is Jesus a liar? If so, then Christianity has a problem. If not, then the rest of the world has a problem. Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the end of WW2. Few are still alive from that era, fewer still are old enough to remember it. Even the lessons of 9/11 have been lost on us and that's been less than 20 years ago. We live in unprecedented times. The next 10 years will see more change than what we've experienced since WW2 - and not for the better. I tried to warn people with The Financial State of the Union, but even Christians prefer the lies over the truth. The best advice I have today - read Ecclesiastes and enjoy what you can - and do your best to stop being a Worldly Christian. What can be fairer than equal pay?
What would equal pay look like? How this can easily be done with a simplified tax code. What can be done until laws are changed? Given the pain many Americans suffered with the 2008 recession and things heating up for the 2020 election, what can be done to help the majority of our workers? Until Congress passes legislation to create a Department of Fairness, there's actually a lot we can do to achieve equal pay. Let's see what equal pay would be. All pay is reported to the government. The Social Security Administration produces an annual report of wage statistics. The current report is for 2017 which is where our numbers come from. The 2018 report is due in October. (link to report) The average pay of 165,438,239 workers is $48,251.57 or roughly $4,020 per month or $928 per week (before taxes, Social Security, and Medicare deductions). Over two-thirds of workers (67.4%) make less than this. Looking at the top 25 highest paying jobs (link to article) - there just aren't enough job openings (less than 60,000) to give the remaining 165 million a shot of bettering themselves. The only fair thing to do is have every worker earn $48,251.57. Since everyone makes the same pay, this would simplify taxes. Rather than multiple deductions (taxes, Social Security, and Medicare) - we can have just one deduction to pay for all levels of government. Government spending is currently running a bit over $7 trillion (link to debt clock). Since a balanced budget is desirable - this works out to $42,311.86 per worker ($7,000,000,000,000 / 165,438,239). So after paying for government, every worker will equally be left with $5,939.71 (about $495/mo or $114 per week). Until we have the Department of Fairness, we'll just have to settle for the current taxing structure - even it that means more debt for now. What else can we do in the mean time? Bill Gates (article link) and Warren Buffett (article link) both agree they aren't paying enough in taxes. Fortunately, there's an easy fix - all they have to do is write a check to the government (instructions here). President Trump has already donated his salary to various agencies. Congress can at least reduce their pay to $48,251.57 just to show how fair and patriotic they are. As Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi makes the most at $223,500 - so she can donate $175,248.43. Most Senators and Representatives make $174,000 meaning they can donate $125,748.43 for fairness. Socialist champions Bernie and AOC, being leaders, should do this immediately. All other government workers at all levels should do the same because that's what patriots do. Imagine union workers and leaders making their patriotic fair share. Think of all those patriotic professors and college coaches taking only their fair share. That would reduce the cost of college making education more affordable. Think of all those patriotic professional athletes only taking their fair share. That would allow for lower ticket prices where ordinary people could afford to go to the game again. Think of all the patriotic performers earning their fair share. You could afford to go to the movies and concerts more often. Think of all the patriotic media members working for their fair share - making news more affordable. Think of all the patriotic medical staff, lawyers, and tech workers accepting only their fair share - making these services more affordable. It wouldn't take much for the one-third of workers doing their patriotic duty, allowing the other two-thirds to make their fair share. While contracts are being changed, Congress can change the tax code to collect all income over $928/week, which could then be passed on at tax filing time to make up the fair pay for the majority of workers. But what about other income - business, investment, and retirement. What about children and people that can't work? Stay tuned for Part 2. This news was posted on the 14th:
US Retail Sales Collapse In December: Biggest Drop In A Decade Those are official numbers and are troubling enough, but my experience leading up to that article has me really concerned about what we'll see for February. As with many of you, I order products through Amazon and Walmart. I've been a Prime member for quite a while just to get the free 2 day shipping. Over the years, some of those "2 days" have been 3 days. My general experience is that orders are delivered on the expected day supplied at the time of order. I placed an order on 2/8 at Walmart for in-store pickup. Part of the order was due on 2/12 with the rest on 2/14. Both parts arrived a day early on 2/11 and 2/13. That by itself was unusual, but not too concerning. I'd placed an order with Amazon on 2/9 for locker pickup with free 4 day shipping. I could've had free 2 day shipping, but I wanted to combine the pickup in my trip to pickup the Walmart order. It was delivered the next day (2/10) - three days early!!! The order wasn't even half the amount needed to qualify for free next day delivery. I made another order from Walmart on 2/13 with free 2 day delivery to my door. It arrived unexpectedly the next day. Three orders with all parts delivered early. This tells me that order volume is so low that orders are being processed before they normally would be. Then those orders are passed to delivery. Faster delivery always costs more, but these are making it through the logistics channel earlier than they should (at standard rates). It's just my experience, but when the February Retail report is released, don't be surprised if it's like the down side of a roller coaster. Do you know how horrific the latest jobs report was?
Get it here to see the numbers for yourself: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Table B-1 (page 33 of the PDF) is where the action is. The far right of the top line is where you find the "fantastic" news that 304,000 jobs were created in January. The BLS counts on you not reading its BS and sadly this administration isn't any better than the last one in giving us the real employment (or financial) situation. It's true the real numbers are released - if you know where to find them and how to read them. For those of you that haven't had to do any modeling, let me briefly talk about Seasonally Adjusted. You probably understand that there are a lot of flowers sold in February, fireworks in July, and toys in December. Businesses like to make projections. It helps for planning things like purchasing inventory and adjusting personnel levels. If you were a toy company forecasting January sales just based on what happened during the 4th quarter, you'd be off quite a bit because sales of toys drop in January. Seasonal adjustments are a way of smoothing the data so that better forecasting can be done. Back to the jobs report - notice that those 304k jobs is a seasonally adjusted number. While on the right side take note the the jobs gain from November to December is 222,000. That makes 526,000 new jobs in the last two months. Aren't times great? Look at the columns on the left for the non-seasonally adjusted data. That's what what we see in real life. The number of employed for the last 3 months: November: 151,375 December: 151,182 January: 148,201 Let me do that math for you. In December we lost 193,000 jobs. For January the loss was 2,981,000. Total jobs lost the last two months - nearly 3.2 million. The difference between the reported gain and the actual loss is 3,700,000 - I ran the numbers twice as it seemed odd that it should be such a round number. So, how good do you feel about 3.2 million people losing their jobs? But John, there was a partial shutdown of the government - that explains the losses. Take a look on PDF page 36 on the line Federal, except U.S. Postal Service. You'll see a loss of 4,500 jobs for December and 3,900 jobs for January. That's less than 9k jobs out of the 3.2 million loss. While you have the PDF open, look at table A on page 9. The top line reads Civilian noninstitutional population. Page 6 explains this is an annual adjustment that Census provides BLS. This shows 800,000 less population than the Census Bureau was projecting for this time from a year ago. This reduction in population growth is stunning. The economic and demographic impacts are well beyond what we can discuss here. Just be aware - it isn't good. Have a nice day. |
AuthorJohn R. Ragan, Captain, USAFR (Ret), MBA, MS - your guide on our journey through The Financial State of the Union Archives
March 2021
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