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Valentine’s Day Retail Massacre

2/18/2019

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This news was posted on the 14th:

​US Retail Sales Collapse In December: Biggest Drop In A Decade

Those are official numbers and are troubling enough, but my experience leading up to that article has me really concerned about what we'll see for February.

As with many of you, I order products through Amazon and Walmart. I've been a Prime member for quite a while just to get the free 2 day shipping. Over the years, some of those "2 days" have been 3 days.

My general experience is that orders are delivered on the expected day supplied at the time of order.

I placed an order on 2/8 at Walmart for in-store pickup. Part of the order was due on 2/12 with the rest on 2/14. Both parts arrived a day early on 2/11 and 2/13.

That by itself was unusual, but not too concerning.

I'd placed an order with Amazon on 2/9 for locker pickup with free 4 day shipping. I could've had free 2 day shipping, but I wanted to combine the pickup in my trip to pickup the Walmart order.

It was delivered the next day (2/10) - three days early!!! The order wasn't even half the amount needed to qualify for free next day delivery.

I made another order from Walmart on 2/13 with free 2 day delivery to my door. It arrived unexpectedly the next day.

Three orders with all parts delivered early.

This tells me that order volume is so low that orders are being processed before they normally would be.

Then those orders are passed to delivery. Faster delivery always costs more, but these are making it through the logistics channel earlier than they should (at standard rates).

It's just my experience, but when the February Retail report is released, don't be surprised if it's like the down side of a roller coaster.


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